The March 5, 2024, Texas primary was a nailbiter for Republican incumbents. With Texas Republican leaders getting involved in most races down the ballot, no one could predict who would come out victorious. With most votes counted, it looks like Gov. Greg Abbott-endorsed candidates were the big winners last night in state legislative races.

Presidential

In Texas, the race for president looked similar to the 2020 elections. President Biden won the Democratic nomination with 85% of the vote, while former President Trump won the Republican primary with 78% vote. Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley had spent time in Texas campaigning, but she was only able to garner 16% of the Republican vote. Haley announced that she will be suspending her campaign.

U.S. Senate

Congressman Collin Allred (D-Dallas) beat eight other candidates in the Democratic primary to secure the Democrat’s nomination to challenge U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz this November. Allred obtained 58% of the vote, with Texas Sen. Roland Gutierrez (D-San Antonio) coming in second with 17% of the vote. All eyes will be on this race in November because Cruz narrowly beat Beto O’Rourke by 3% points in 2018. Cruz was challenged by two opponents in the Republican primary but he obtained 89% of the vote.

Congressional

Texas Senate

The Senate only had four contested races. Sen. Nathan Johnson (D-Dallas) easily won against Rep. Victoria Neave. Two open Senate races will head to runoff elections. In Senate District 30, Brent Hagenbuch will face Jace Yarbrough in the Republican runoff, and Michael Braxton will face Dale Frey in the Democratic runoff. In the open seat to replace Houston Mayor Whitmire’s SD 15, state Rep. Jarvis Johnson will face Molly Cook in the Democratic runoff.

Texas House

Abbott endorsed 47 contested House races and Attorney General Ken Paxton endorsed 35, differing in who they endorsed in 24 races. Abbott endorsed House candidates who are pro-school voucher, while Paxton endorsed against incumbents who voted for his impeachment. While all votes are not yet in, it looks like 17 Abbott-endorsed candidates have won their races outright, while only two of Paxton’s candidates have won. Nine Texas House Republican incumbents have lost their seats, with six of them being anti-voucher incumbents. This breaks the record for the most Republican legislators to lose an election in the history of the state.

Thirteen Republican House races will be headed to a runoff, with eight being current incumbents. All eyes will be on House District 21 where House Speaker Dade Phelan heads to a runoff against challenger David Covey. Paxton, Lt. Governor Dan Patrick, and former President Trump endorsed challenger Covey. No incumbent Texas House Speaker has lost a primary since 1972.

On the Democratic side, four races are certain to be headed to a runoff. It is still unclear if State Rep. Shawn Thierry (D-Houston) will have a runoff in her race against Lauren Simmons. Simmons currently holds the lead with 49.53% and Thierry trailing with 44.1%. Harris County totals are not complete at this time. Runoff elections will be held May 28, 2024.

Incumbents that lost:

  • State Rep. Steve Allison (R-San Antonio)
  • State Rep. Ernest Bailes (R-Shepherd)
  • State Rep. Travis Clardy (R-Nacogdoches)
  • State Rep. Jill Dutton (R-Van Zandt)
  • State Rep. Jacey Jetton (R-Richmond)
  • State Rep. Glenn Rogers (R-Graford)
  • State Rep. Hugh Shine (R-Temple)
  • State Rep. Reggie Smith (R-Sherman)
  • State Rep. Kronda Thimesch (R-Carollton)

Incumbents going to a runoff:

  • State Rep. Gary VanDeaver (R- New Boston)
  • Speaker Dade Phelan (R-Beaumont)
  • State Rep. Justin Holland (R- Rockwall)
  • Rep. John Kuempel (R-Seguin)
  • State Rep. DeWayne Burns (R- Cleburne)
  • State Rep. Lynn Stucky (R-Denton)
  • State Rep. Stephanie Klick (R- Fort Worth)
  • State Rep. Fredrick Frazier (R-McKinney)
  • State Rep. Shawn Thierry (D-Houston)* – still waiting on final vote count