The United States Energy Information Administration (“EIA”) issued a July 11th projection that United States crude oil and other liquid fuels production would rise beyond 2017.

The EIA projection references its Annual Energy Outlook 2016.

EIA projects that United States petroleum as a liquid fuels production, which in addition to crude oil and condensate production includes natural gas, plant liquids derived from natural gas processing as well as biofuels and volume gain at refineries, is projected to grow from 14.8 million barrels/day in 2015 to 18.6 million barrels/day in 2040. However, EIA references the uncertainty “inherent in making projections” and notes that the Annual Energy Outlook 2016 includes:

. . .several alternative cases, based on different assumptions for world oil prices, macroeconomic growth, resource availability, technology improvement, and other factors.

EIA also notes that differences in crude oil from tight formations (“Tight”) and Natural Gas Plant Liquids (“NGPL”) account for most of the differences in production across such cases.

A copy of the July 11th projection can be downloaded here.