Since the last forecast seven months ago, Jon’s prediction on the status of several races has shifted, and Democrats appear to have an edge. Prior to joining McDermott, Jon was the White House correspondent for Reuters Television and he has been a member of the White House Press Corps since 1995. The information expressed in this piece contains the author’s predictions (not the Firm’s), which are based on current information and forecasting, and are not intended to be an endorsement of any candidate.


With just three weeks until election day, the battle for control of the U.S. Senate is in the homestretch.  Since the last forecast, the map has changed dramatically, with Democrats showing a bit of momentum.  As a reminder, Democrats currently maintain a slim 53–47 majority in the upper chamber.  Chances of a Republican takeover appear to be slipping away, however.

In the 2012 cycle, there are 33 Senate races on the ballot.  Twenty-three of those are currently held by Democrats; 10 are for open seats.  As things stand, there are eight races that can be considered truly competitive.

What follows is an updated analysis and forecast of each of those Senate races.  Although three weeks is an eternity in politics, this is an educated forecast based on current information as to the way the Senate map would look if the Presidential election were held today

Click here to view table.

Map 1 shows the current Senate makeup of the 112th Congress.

Map 2 shows the states in which a contested Senate election will take place in 2012.

Map 3 is an educated forecast, based on current information, of the way the map would look if the presidential election were held today.


Of the eight truly competitive races, six are now held by Senators who caucus with Democrats.  Following are current predictions on the eight toss-up states:

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The Result 

Since the last forecast, the race in Massachusetts has moved out of the “leans Republican” category and into “leans Democrat.”  In addition, Missouri has moved from “leans Republican” to “leans Democrat.”  Indiana has moved from the “toss-up” category to “leans Democrat,” and Virginia has moved out of the “toss-up” category to “leans Democrat.”  If the rest of the forecast holds true, Democrats would retain control of the U.S. Senate with an unchanged 53–47 majority.