2016 Presidential Prognostications & Insights: The Presumptive Nominees

Blake, I don't think it was a weak GOP field. Let me say it in the past tense. I sure did not think it was a weak GOP field when it began, nor did the rest of us establishment types. What Donald Trump did is absolutely unprecedented, absolutely phenomenal, whatever else anyone may think of him, and I think it's pretty clear what I think of him, he has to be respected for the genius of his self-promotion and marketing himself to this nomination.

However, let's be clear about the arithmetic of what he actually did. Donald Trump got half the votes in a primary process in which about a third of the Republican party participated, and the Republican party represents about a third of the country. I can't do the math in my head, but he's got a half of a third of a third. It's amazing that he's the guy who got it, but he has not yet been put to the test of a general election. May I just say before you ask your next question, so much has been made by him of all the millions of votes that he has more than Mitt Romney and all the people he's brought into the process, and no energy on the democratic side, Hillary Clinton has 3 million more votes than Donald Trump. I say let's just call the general election based on the primary result. She ran away with it

Well, at that level, I agree. I agree. At that level, that's his message, but when he starts talking about the minimum wage, and he's against it, and he's for it, and then maybe let the states figure out if it's a good or bad idea. When he starts talking about taxes, I agree. At an elemental and elementary level, he has a very clear message of hate, in the case of immigration, and of negativity in the case of trade. Beyond that, it gets very confused.

What I wanted to just say about the Quinnipiac poll, which I find absolutely fascinating, because it is the confusion, it's what this guy has done to this year, it's so confusing. In that Quinnipiac poll, just as you said, Howard, more people said they trusted Donald Trump on terrorism and on the economy than Hillary Clinton. However, two thirds of the people in that poll said that Donald Trump did not have the temperament to be president. Half said that Hillary did. Two thirds of the people said he didn't have the temperament to be president, and yet they trust him on the economy and they trust him on terrorism.

It's interesting, guys, because I think this notion of temperament is hyper-relevant today. By today, I don't mean in a grander sense. I mean literally on Tuesday, because we have seen some very prominent republicans back away from Donald Trump. Both presidents Bush are not participating in this election. John McCain is kind of TBD. He's got his own re-election to think about, but he's made some very interesting comments about Trump's need to apologize to veterans, on top of comments where Trump's candidacy puts him, to quote Senator McCain, "In the race of his life." Mitt Romney's skipping the Republican Convention. Lindsey Graham and Jeb Bush refusing to endorse, Mary Madeline, noted republican strategist joining the libertarian party. Mark Salter, who advised John McCain in 2008, organizing republicans for Hillary.

Temperament does seem to be a cause for concern today, Howard. Do you see it staying that way? Obviously I'm foreshadowing Trump's summit with Paul Ryan later this week. I thought you might talk a little bit about where you see the temperament factor going in light of the Quinnipiac poll, and the how that plays into this Paul Ryan meeting this week.

I definitely think it's going to continue to play a role, but I also believe that everybody has their own reason for, if you don't like Trump, for not liking Trump. I think for the Paul Ryans and the Lindsey Grahams ... Let me take that back. For the Paul Ryans of the world, he's not conservative enough. For Lindsey Graham, it may be that he's unpredictable and a loose cannon. For other people it may be that they feel like he's inflaming bigotry. I think that's all okay with Trump. His strategy, I think he's taking a divide and conquer approach, because there is no "Stop Trump" movement. There are lots of people for lots of different reasons that don't like him. The lack of cohesion among them is, I think, one of the reasons why he thinks he can eventually peel off some of those people and amass enough voters to help him win in the fall.

I think more fundamentally, he's not ... I do think temperament is an issue, and I think he's not prepared or preparing to be president. At some point, he has to start taking seriously the prospect of actually becoming president of the United States.

Trump can get there, sure, yes. Anyone who thinks that he can't isn't paying attention to what has happened so far this year on both sides, because there is obviously on our side an analog to what Howard describes on the republican side. Anything can happen. If Steph Curry can score 17 points in overtime last night after coming back from a knee injury, even Donald Trump can be president, but you would rather not rely on Steph Curry scoring 17 points in overtime every game, and you would rather be her than him in looking at this electoral map, Blake. That is because of where the white voters are.

Yeah, I agree that the map is much less relevant in 2016 than it was in 2012. In 2012 it was an incumbent president running on the same map that he won on four years before. All the rules are out the window, but just to kind of frame how I think this may play out, I think what we're going to see, and I think this is something that you're saying, Howard. We're going to see an election between identity and ideas. I recognize that it is really saying something to call Donald Trump's program "ideas", but the people who are for Trump, as you were saying a minute ago, like the very basic primal policies, let's build a wall and keep immigrants out, let's take our jobs back from China. Those are ideas, whether they're realistic ideas is another matter.

What Hillary Clinton is depending on, it seems to me, and certainly the way I have been talking about the election, is identity. It's where Latinos vote as Latinos because Trump has defamed them, where Muslims vote as Muslims because Trump has defamed them, where women vote as women because Trump has defamed them. If the American electorate goes to the polls and pulls the lever based on the identity of the voter, he is not going to get elected, because there are more people he's defamed than people he hasn't. If, on the other hand, people go in and buy what he's selling, the wall, and the Muslim ban, and auditing the fed, whatever that means which he says he'll do in his first hundred days, if people buy what he's selling sure. Sure, he can get elected president.

Yeah. Chuck Todd on Meet the Press the other day he said, "Look, Trump really became the nominee the day that Paul Ryan took himself out of being," in his words, "the white knight when he made clear that he was not going to step into a contested convention environment and try to take this on the second or the third ballot." We've talked about some establishment discord. We talked about the demographic challenges. I wonder, it'll be very interesting to see what the outcome of that meeting is. I think that it's more complicated for both guys, simply because you do have a part that at some point is going to have to line up, if they're going to eventually go attack this general election, even in an era of Trump mania, with some semblance of seriousness and some semblance of a campaign that mechanically is built to win. You all have both seen presidential campaigns come alive. You've also seen them die. Trump is, I think, at a pretty interesting point. I this Ryan meeting has potentially grander consequences, but we'll wait and see. I think it's going to be fascinating.

I want to pivot now to what's going on on the democratic side. We have been inundated with Trump. We can't stop talking about Trump, but we still have a primary among the democrats. Mark, Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders by 3 million votes. She's ahead by 287 pledged delegates. 77% of the pledged delegates have been done. If we look at the polling, she is up by 28 points in New Jersey. She is up by 20 points in California, the two biggest delegate allocation states left. Why are we still dealing with a democratic primary?

Hillary Clinton won the democratic nomination weeks, maybe months ago. The outcome hasn't been in doubt for a long time, but we are dealing with a democratic primary because we are democrats. That's what we do. We run against each other, and we fight with each other, and we take it to the end. Then we come together, at least in 2008, the most relevant precedent year. It doesn't always happen. Certainly didn't happen in 1990, but what we are seeing is deja vu all over again. This is what Hillary did with then senator Obama in 2008. She actually was behind than less than Bernie, but there was still no credible path for her to win once the super delegates flipped, but she felt obligated to her supporters and to her program to take it right through the end. She did, and then she and the presumptive nominee made peace.

I actually think it's less hostile this time than in was in 2008. I was there in 2008. I remember being amazed and a little discouraged by the fury of the Clinton supporters that this skinny black guy from Chicago had taken away her birthright as the first woman president. We don't have that degree of personal animosity, I don't think, this time. We also don't have the race dimension. We don't have the Reverend Jeremiah Wright and that whole nightmare. I think it's okay. I think what's going on now is exactly right. Bernie, in fact, has recently been talking more about Trump than about Clinton. He's been talking more about the platform and influencing programs than actually winning the nomination. He knows that he's the nominee, and I think it's starting to come back together.

I certainly agree that presidential elections get decided by 15 to 20% of the voters in 8 or 10 states. That's the reality. To the degree that her vice presidential pick is addressed to them, that makes sense what Howard is saying. However, I don't think I agree that it's going to be so easy to bring all the progressives and all of Bernie's people along. I think the person that she intends to speak to those people in the middle is her. I think that that is the Clinton constituency. I think that bringing in somebody to talk to those people instead of her or in addition to her is not necessary. That's where she is going to be in this election.

I personally, Howard, I know she's far from your favorite. I know why, and I don't disagree on that score, but I'm a big fan of a Clinton-Warren ticket. I just think a Clinton-Warren ticket doubles down on everything that is important about Hillary Clinton's candidacy, policy, programs, values, experience. I think it excites the party. I think it excites the Sanders supporters, and I just don't think people are really choosing between Clinton and Trump. Every election so far has been about persuasion and turnout. First you get people to decide to vote for you. Then you get them to come out and vote. This is a lot less about persuasion and a lot more about turnout. I think Elizabeth Warren is the turnout choice.

Let's pivot to what a general election might look like, because, Mark, you talked about this really at the very beginning of our call. Hillary Clinton not only has outperformed Bernie Sanders in the primary, if we're comparing raw vote to raw vote. She significantly outperformed Donald Trump, receiving millions more votes than he did. Our friends at the COP Political Report, after it was apparent Trump was going to be the presumptive nominee, published their electoral college map, and we've touched on the electoral college. I don't want to come back to that, but they have it at 304 for Hillary and 190 for Trump. That doesn't even include Ohio. It has Iowa, North Carolina, Nebraska, Arizona, Georgia all in play.

My question to both of you is what does this general election look like, in terms of how these two candidates both match up with each other and then what the voters can expect? I mean that with ... Let me shape my question this way. I heard it the other day, and I think it's appropriate. Hillary Clinton's great at hitting fast balls, but Donald Trump's going to throw a lot of Junk. Howard, I want to start with you. Frame for me in your own words and from your own perspective what you think the general election contrasts really are going to be between these two candidates.