Key observations and conclusions this quarter include:

  • The YTD volume of CNFs sent, when compared with the previous reporting year, has fallen by 22,896 (- 11.3 %) to 180,015, which is equivalent to 23.2% of the previous year’s total at the end of Q1.
  • The number of Stage 1 exits, when compared with the previous reporting year, has fallen by 9,180 (- 17.9%) to 42,245, which is equivalent to 21.8% of the previous year’s total at the end of Q1.
  • The number of Stage 2 exits, when compared with the previous reporting year, has fallen by 546 (- 14.8%) to 3,143, which is equivalent to 22.8% of the previous year’s total at the end of Q1.
  • The number of claims using the Exit Process, when compared with the previous reporting year, has fallen by 617 (- 1.4%) to 42,885, which is equivalent to 24.5% of the previous year’s total at the end of Q1.
  • The percentage of CNFs exiting for one reason or another is 48.7%, which represents the slightest of increases when compared with the previous reporting year’s figure of 48.3%.
  • The number of Stage 2 settlements, when compared with the previous reporting year, has fallen by 5,181 (-10.0%) to 46,480, which is equivalent to 24.2% of the previous year’s total at the end of Q1.
  • The number of Stage 3 court packs that were prepared, when compared with the previous reporting year, has increased by 1,618 (+ 9.2%) to 19,119, which is equivalent to 26.6% of the previous year’s total at the end of Q1.

Conclusions

  • CNFs sent – if the present position is maintained, the annualised projection for 2017/18 would be 720,060. As the total number of CNFs sent during 2016/17 was 776,492, this suggests a fall of 56,432 (- 7.3%) year on year.
  • Stage 1 – if the present position on Stage 1 exits is maintained, the annualised projection for 2017/18 would be 168,980, a decrease of or 25,153 (- 13.0%) claims year on year – a positive sign given that fewer ‘unsuitable’ claims appear to be entering the Portal and subsequently exiting at the earliest opportunity.
  • Stage 2 – if the present position on Stage 2 exits is maintained, the annualised projection for 2017/18 would be 12,572, a decrease of 8.7% year on year – a positive sign, albeit the projected increase in absolute terms is minimal at 1,194 claims.
  • General Exit Process – if the present position on general exits is maintained, the annualised projection for 2017/18 would be 169,072, which would represent a decrease of 3,291 (- 1.9%) – a positive sign reflecting lower numbers of CNFs being notified and fewer exits at Stages 1 and 2.
  • Claims YTD that either settled at Stage 2 or proceeded to Stage 3 together total 65,979 (36.6% of the total of CNFs sent), which represents an increase of 2.3% in the percentage of CNFs either settling at Stage 2 or proceeding for disposal to Stage 3 when compared with the previous reporting year.
  • The number of Stage 3 court packs prepared as a percentage of CNFs retained averages 20.7%, which represents an increase of 4.0% when compared with the same period during the previous reporting year – a potentially negative sign suggesting a greater proportion of claims are either proceeding to court for disposal or only settling later in the claims process when claimants’ legal representatives are entitled to recover an additional ‘Type A’ fee.
  • Retained claims unaccounted for by either a Stage 2 settlement or a Stage 3 court pack total 26,380 YTD (14.6%). Analysis will continue to be required by customers to track the progress and lifecycle of claims which appear to stall at Stage 2 before being abandoned or resurrected, given that the Portal is not capable of capturing this information (and these figures also include CNFs that have liability decisions outstanding).

The full report can be accessed here.