Two new sets of polls provide dramatically different pictures of the Florida electorate. In a Rasmussen Reports survey of 750 likely voters taken on July 21, 2010, former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio (R-Miami) is essentially tied with Gov. Crist, who is running without party affiliation, in the race for the U.S. Senate.
In a three-way race including the Democratic candidate, U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-17th Congressional District), Mr. Rubio is supported by 35 percent of respondents, Gov. Crist is supported by 33 percent, Rep. Meek is supported by 20 percent, and 11 percent are either undecided or favored some other candidate. When the matchup includes Rep. Meek's primary opponent, investor Jeff Greene, Gov. Crist leads with 36 percent, followed by Mr. Rubio at 34 percent, Mr. Greene at 19 percent, and 12 percent either undecided or favoring another candidate.
The automated telephone survey had a margin of error of four percentage points.
Public Policy Polling has released a series of surveys of 900 registered voters taken from July 16 through July 18. In the Senate race, Public Policy Polling shows Gov. Crist with a lead that is outside the margin of error. When Rep. Meek is included in the matchup, Gov. Crist leads with 35 percent, followed by Mr. Rubio at 29 percent, Rep. Meek at 17 percent, and 19 percent either undecided or favoring another candidate. The results are similar when Mr. Greene is included, with Gov. Crist receiving 38 percent, Mr. Rubio receiving 29 percent, Mr. Greene receiving 13 percent, and 19 percent undecided or favoring another candidate.
The survey also showed former health care executive Rick Scott leading Attorney General Bill McCollum in the Republican primary for governor. Mr. Scott held a 14-point lead over the attorney general, 43 percent to 29 percent, with 28 percent undecided.
CFO Alex Sink, the presumptive Democratic candidate for governor, leads both Republican candidates and unaffiliated candidate Bud Chiles, the son of the late Gov. Lawton Chiles. In a matchup that includes Attorney General McCollum, Ms. Sink leads with 37 percent, followed by Mr. McCollum with 23 percent, Mr. Chiles with 14 percent, and 26 percent undecided. When Mr. Scott is included in the matchup, Ms. Sink leads with 36 percent, followed by Mr. Scott with 30 percent, and Mr. Chiles with 13 percent, with 22 percent undecided.
In the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, Rep. Meek and Mr. Greene are essentially tied. Rep. Meek was supported by 28 percent of respondents, Mr. Greene had the support of 25 percent, 10 percent supported other candidates, and 37 percent were undecided.
The automated telephone poll surveyed 900 registered voters, including 400 registered Republicans and 339 registered Democrats. The margin of error for the general election questions was 3.26 percentage points. The margin of error for Republican primary questions was 4.9 percentage points, and the margin of error for Democratic primary questions was 5.3 percentage points.