On September 12, 2016, Global Affairs Canada posted a report by the Office of the Chief Economist, entitled Economic Impact of Canada’s Potential Participation in the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement. The study assesses the potential economic impact of the TPP Agreement on Canada and other members in terms of income gains and new trade and investment opportunities based on the final negotiated outcomes of the TPP Agreement, which was concluded in Atlanta, GA in October 2015. It highlights the projected economic impact that Canada faces if it chooses to be a party to the Agreement, as well as the potential economic impact if Canada opts out of the Agreement, and the 11 other TPP countries are part of the Agreement.
Economic analysis conducted by the Office of the Chief Economist at Global Affairs Canada suggests that choosing to join the TPP Agreement would generate long-term GDP gains for Canada of $4.3 billion (US$3.3 billion). These projected gains are driven primarily by preferential access to the TPP markets with which Canada does not already have an FTA. On the other hand, if Canada chooses not to be a party to the TPP Agreement, while all other 11 TPP members are part of it, resulting in GDP losses would total an estimated $5.3 billion (US$ 4.2 billion). This is the result of anticipated preference erosion in existing FTA markets, particularly the US and Mexico, which would occur regardless of whether Canada were a party to the Agreement, and losses that, in the alternative, would be offset by gains flowing from preferential access to other TPP countries.