Although Brexit is unlikely to be in effect for almost two years or more, there are some questions as to what impact Brexit might have on British export controls and economic sanctions. Any prediction here is risky beyond my speculation that the UK will be unlikely to alienate the U.S. and other allies by significantly altering its export and sanctions regimes.

At this point, and in the wake of the vote last night, you may find it useful to understand the legal background under which Brexit will affect U.K. export controls and sanctions. Given that all your Facebook friends have suddenly become experts on Brexit (soon to be known as Brexperts), you can now impress them as a Brexport Brexpert.

Let’s start with the Wassenaar Arrangement. The European Union is not a party to the Wassenaar Arrangement. Rather all member states of the E.U. (other than Cyprus) are individual members of the Wassenaar Arrangement. Accordingly, Brexit will have absolutely no impact on Britain’s obligations under Wassenaar. The Wassenaar Agreement is the source, via Council Regulation (EC) No 428/2009 (and associated legal amendments) of the UK Control Lists. Although the intermediate authority for the lists will go away on Brexit, no alteration in those control lists will occur by virtue of Brexit alone.

This brings us to Council Regulation (EC) No. 428/2009, which establishes the E.U. framework for export controls. Here it is important to understand that the regulation did not create a centralized EU export control regime. Rather it left principal authority with Member States to implement their own control regimes in accord with principles set forth in the regulation. Britain’s Export Control Order of 2008 implements 428/2009 and related EU authorities. Although it will become untethered from 428/2009 on Brexit, there is no reason that it should not remain in place post-Brexit.

The situation with sanctions is somewhat more complicated and depends on the particular EU sanction. The JCPOA, which lifted many international sanctions on Iran, for example, will not be affected because the U.K. is an independent signatory to the JCPOA. Other E.U. sanctions, such as the Russia/Ukraine sanctions, have direct legal effect in the U.K., although it is up to the member state to establish and enforce penalties. In these instances, there is no independent legal authority in the U.K. for that sanction, and its status after Brexit becomes uncertain. It is, of course, likely that Britain will not seek to alienate its allies by walking away from these sanctions, but it will have to enact domestic legislation to implement them before or after Brexit.