In a report authored by CMS’s Office of the Actuary and published in Health Affairs, CMS projected that healthcare spending would grow by an average of 5.8% in the aggregate over 2014-2024. Such a rate is 1.1% higher than the Gross Domestic Product is expected to grow during the same period, but substantially lower than the 9% average rate of increase from 1978-2008.

The report included the following findings:

  • The rate of per-capital premium growth in private plans is expected to slow to 2.8% as a result of marketplace enrollees being somewhat heathier;
  • Over the next 11 years, approximately 19.1 million additional people are expected to enroll in Medicare as baby boomers continue to age;
  • The insured rate is expected to increase from 86% to 92% over the next 11 years; and
  • As a result of increased coverage, aggregated out-of-pocket expenses for the insured and uninsured are projected to decline from 11.6% in 2014 to 10% by 2024.