The Brexit vote – What’s new?
We have been here before with the same pack of cards but it is just that at the moment they have been shuffled differently!
At Collyer Bristow we have seen entering into the Common Market (EU) we’ve seen wars, tsunamis, hurricanes, financial collapse, sterling collapse and now this vote that no one actually thought would come to fruition.
We have a wealth and depth of experience and maturity here and are able to help and advise should you want to discuss matters with us.
Effect on housebuilders
We are told that UK house builders lost nearly 40% of their value since the referendum results, although they have clawed back some of these losses recently. About £8 billion was lost off the market capitalisation of the 4 biggest house builders – Taylor Wimpey, Persimmon, Barrett and Berkeley Homes.
At the same time, Redrow has reported average selling prices are up and that profit before tax is likely to be above expectations notwithstanding the referendum.
A poll of RICS surveyors say they expect prices to fall over the next 3 months, but they expect an increase overall over the next 12 months.
Who is to be believed? Are UK house builders facing Armageddon?
The fundamentals of the UK property remain the same. Demand outstrips supply.
The UK needs to build over 250,000 homes a year. It is hardly achieving half of this target. At the current rate of construction, the housing shortfall is estimated to reach more than 700,000 in London in just 16 years.
Constraints on supply
Some constraints on supply, which applied during the financial crisis such as planning permission constraints, are not as pronounced as previously.
The availability of construction workers and materials is however more likely to be a concern this time around.
If Brexit operates as a brake on housing inflation over the longer term, this may not be a bad thing. Perhaps it will help make the dream of housing ownership a reality for those now struggling to get on the housing ladder.
Availability of funding
The main question for developers is whether funding will dry up. Inevitably there will be decreased funding available but this is not a global liquidity crisis like the post-Lehman crash. The industry no longer depends exclusively on mainstream banks. Alternative sources of funding have made a difference. Government initiatives to such as Help to Buy make it a bit easier for buyers to fund purchases.